New doubts about California's future

Is the Golden State still golden?

Ominous reports and polls about California and its future are popping up in the news stream these days, sowing reactions and counter-reactions not only among the state’s almost 40 million people, but across the nation.

After one of the wettest months of February on record, with overfull reservoirs and deep snow in the Sierra Nevada mountains, at least we don’t have to worry short-term about water, and as the sun today came back out, plenty warm enough to allow for an afternoon on the front patio with a cup of coffee and a magazine, it answered, again, the question of why so many have come out here to the West.

I have gone back and forth to California many times, since I first came here in June 1960 — a very long time ago…Then, after a twenty-two hour flight from Stockholm, I landed in Los Angeles on a cloudy morning and headed out to Malibu and my host family, high above the Pacific Ocean. And suddenly, I remember, the clouds lifted and the sun and a clear, blue sky appeared, and I could hear the waves crashing against the beach way down below. To the north, I could see the surfers sitting on their boards like little black dots in the water outside the Malibu Pier, waiting for the right wave. To the south, across the blue and wide Santa Monica Bay, and beyond, I could see the bluish, almost pink hills of the Palos Verde Peninsula. The California of my the boyhood dreams was spread out before me in all its glory — had I gone to heaven?

I hadn't, of course, and I am reminded of that these days when the Golden State, the place of dreams and sunshine and the good life, is being questioned, doubted, like maybe never before. During the last three years, the state’s population has declined — — that’s never happened before after a century of nonstop growth. And in a recent Los Angeles Times/Leger poll, half of all American adults, nationwide, believe that California is in decline, and 48 percent of the Republicans in the poll believe that the state is “not really American.”

I don’t know what “not really American” means, but it might be connected to Silicon Valley or Hollywood; or because we are simply so big, with the world’s fifth largest economy; or because the white Californians are no longer and for many years in the majority, overtaken by a minority-majority population of Latinos, Asians, and Blacks. And, finally, maybe, it’s because we are politically a deep blue state, with Democrats dominating across the board, filling every statewide leadership position and with Democratic super majorities in the state’s senate and assembly. In U.S. Congress, both senators are Democrats as are 42 of the state’s 53 members in the U.S. House of Representatives.

If you are Republican, and although there are five million registered Republicans in California, you have no political power here. And, generally, Republican voters are significantly more likely to have a negative opinion about California than Democratic voters. If you are a more conservative American, you do not like California. Among Republicans, only one third said the state’s impact on the country as a whole has been positive; nearly 40 percent don’t even think that the state is worth visiting and 30 percent of Republicans are more likely to reject moving here because of the politics.

The California economy and high cost of living also shape opinion. 87 percent of Americans agree that the state is too expensive with the highest housing costs in the nation resulting in the largest homeless population in the nation, and only one-third think it’s a good place to raise a family. Add to that crime, although the state’s crime statistics is about average, and 52 percent in the poll think it is unsafe to live here.

Still, the poll also shows that California has retained its image as a new frontier, especially among the young, of whom 70 percent see California as a trendsetter and its impact on America as positive. Those between 18 and 34 years of age are also twice as likely to consider moving to California than other Americans. There are jobs here.

Meanwhile, on March 5, Super Tuesday, the California primary election is one of over a dozen states holding primaries. There is little drama. Both Biden and Trump will win their primaries. No state-wide offices are contested except to elect the successor to deceased U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein (D). A Democrat will succeed her. So little drama here, too. No, the real political battle will take place in ten districts to elect new members of the U.S. House of Representatives. Democratic victories here could result in the return to power for the Democrats in the House. I will write more about all this as we get closer to Super Tuesday.